Although HDB’s resale price index just slipped 0.1% in Q1 2026 — its first quarterly drop since 2019 — don’t mistake that for a cheapening market: I’m seeing a sharper split instead, where softer headline prices coexist with buyers still stretching hard, with roughly one in three paying at least S$800,000 and more than 400 flats already crossing the S$1 million mark in the quarter.
A 0.1% dip doesn’t signal a cheaper HDB market — it signals a market splitting in two.
That contradiction matters more than the tiny index move.
The slowdown has been building for a while: 2025 resale price growth cooled to 2.9%, far below 2024’s 9.7%, after five straight quarters of slower or flat gains. By late March, resale volume stood at 6,179 units, about 4.5% lower year on year. Four-room median prices edged down to around S$628,888, while executive flats fell harder, down 1.6% to about S$900,000, helping drag the overall index lower.
But the middle and top ends are still doing a lot of heavy lifting. In Q1 alone, at least 412 resale flats sold for S$1 million or more, up about 18% from the previous quarter. Most of those deals still came from mature towns, which account for over 90% of million-dollar transactions. Nine towns even hit new resale price highs in Q1, including Bukit Merah, Clementi, Punggol, Queenstown and Tampines. The quarter’s standout deal was a five-room flat in Dawson Road that changed hands for S$1.7 million, setting a new resale record. About 15% of these million-dollar deals involved flats with 94-year leases or more remaining.
Here’s the contrarian point: more supply doesn’t automatically mean broad-based bargains. Yes, about 13,484 flats are projected to reach their five-year MOP in 2026, nearly double 2025’s level, and HDB plans around 19,600 BTO units this year. That will ease pressure. Zooming out, HDB resale prices have surged over 52% cumulatively since Q2 2020, a reminder of just how much ground buyers are now paying up against.
But much of the incoming resale stock sits in exactly the estates buyers already want, and newer, well-located homes are still commanding a premium because lease balance and freshness matter.
