Resilience amid moderation characterizes the Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale market in the first quarter of 2025, as the Resale Price Index (RPI) increased by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter to reach 201.0, marking the 20th consecutive quarter of price growth since the pandemic-induced trough in Q2 2020.
This latest increment, however, represents a deceleration from the 2.6% increase observed in the preceding quarter, and falls below the 2.3% average quarterly growth recorded throughout 2024, signaling a potential recalibration in market dynamics.
Transaction volumes exhibited modest improvement with 6,590 HDB flats changing hands in Q1 2025, reflecting a 2.6% increase from the 6,424 units transacted in Q4 2024.
Despite this quarterly uptick, the year-on-year comparison reveals a 6.8% contraction from the 7,068 units resold in Q1 2024, indicating subdued activity relative to historical patterns.
This moderation coincides with robust private residential sales, as developers moved 3,375 new private homes in Q1 2025, potentially diverting some demand from the resale market.
The substantial expansion of housing supply through BTO flats has contributed to the overall market cooldown despite continued price growth.
The cumulative appreciation in the resale price index now exceeds 52% since Q2 2020, underscoring the sustained demand fundamentals despite emerging headwinds.
The remarkable 52% price surge since 2020 highlights enduring market strength even as challenges emerge on the horizon.
The year-on-year price growth of 9.4% for resale flats significantly outpaced the 3.3% increase observed in private residential properties.
The slowest quarterly price growth in five quarters suggests increasing buyer caution regarding elevated price levels, with price resistance becoming more pronounced as affordability constraints intensify.
Market heterogeneity persists at the town level, with 19 towns recording quarterly price growth in Q1 2025, down from 20 in Q4 2024, while the number of towns experiencing price declines increased from six to seven.
Owner-occupier demand continues to underpin the resale market, though the pace of price increases may moderate further given the ample supply of upcoming Build-to-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) offerings.
The market witnessed a notable 348 HDB flats transacted for at least million-dollar prices in Q1 2025, representing 5.5% of the overall resale volume.
Macroeconomic uncertainties, including trade tensions and interest rate considerations, could further temper price momentum in subsequent quarters.
Nevertheless, the ongoing streak of price increases attests to the fundamental resilience of Singapore’s public housing resale market, which continues to demonstrate stability amid broader economic fluctuations.
