How resilient can Singapore’s public housing market remain amid decelerating growth? In 2025, the HDB resale segment is exhibiting a nuanced combination of slower headline appreciation and persistent price firmness, with the resale price index (RPI) rising 2.9% in the first nine months compared with 6.9% over the same period in 2024. Full‑year projections are clustering at 3–4%, or up to 3–6% under more optimistic scenarios, which is well below the 9.7% increase recorded in 2024.
By Q3 2025, the RPI had reached 203.7, up 2.9% from end‑2024. Analysts noted that the quarter represented the slowest price gain in five years, and if the 3–4% full‑year forecast materialises, it would be the weakest annual growth in six years. With 2026 resale prices forecast to rise a further 2–5%, policymakers are signalling a preference for sustained but moderate growth rather than another sharp price run‑up.
Despite this moderation, price levels remain elevated in year‑on‑year terms, with June 2025 values up 7.3% overall. Both mature and non‑mature estates registering 7.2% gains underscore broad‑based resilience.
Micro‑movements show a similarly mixed pattern. June 2025 prices rose 0.1% month‑on‑month, led by a 0.8% increase in 5‑room flats, while 3‑room units gained 0.4%. Executive flats declined 2.7%, reflecting differentiated buyer demand across segments.
Transaction volumes have softened more visibly than prices. There were 21,412 resale applications in the first ten months of 2025, down 11.1% year‑on‑year. Full‑year estimates are at 24,000–25,000 units, which is below the 28,986 deals in 2024. However, some forecasts still anticipate 27,000–28,000 units and a 26,000–27,000 range in 2026.
Market participants attribute the pullback to intensified competition from Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercises and a slimmer pipeline of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period. These factors have constrained available stock. Post-pandemic housing shortages have intensified buyer competition for the limited inventory entering the resale market.
At the upper end, million‑dollar HDB transactions have surged to new records. In Q3 2025 alone, 480 units changed hands at S$1 million or more, and 1,243 such deals in the first nine months already surpass the full‑year 2024 total of 1,035. Between January and October, 1,330 units were recorded — a 55.9% year‑on‑year jump. This surge is largely driven by 4‑room flats, which saw 561 million‑dollar transactions, up 90.2%.
Average price benchmarks highlight a persistent maturity premium. In Q3 2025, 5‑room flats in mature estates averaged S$931,550 versus S$715,799 in non‑mature areas, a 30% differential. For 3‑room flats, the average is S$470,000 in 2025.
Underlying these dynamics are limited MOP‑ready supply, a resilient macroeconomic backdrop—with Q3 2025 GDP expanding 2.9% year‑on‑year, unemployment at 2.0%, and inflation easing to a 0.2% quarter‑on‑quarter CPI increase—and declining interest rates following US Federal Reserve cuts in September and October 2025.
These factors collectively bolster purchasing capacity even as cooling measures and rising buyer resistance temper the rate of increase.
Looking to 2026, industry forecasts indicate a further 2–5% uplift in the RPI from an already higher 2025 base. This could mean potential nominal gains of up to S$55,000 for 4‑room and 5‑room units, particularly in well‑located, city‑proximate estates.
Even as expanded BTO and SBF supply is expected to help stabilise overall market conditions, these measures are likely to maintain relative affordability in non‑mature locations.
