How sharply can market momentum turn within a single year? In 2025, the HDB resale market registered a decisive inflection, with flash estimates from the Housing and Development Board indicating that resale prices were flat in the fourth quarter, a sharp contrast to the brisk conditions observed in the private residential sector over the same period. The absence of quarter-on-quarter price escalation, which coincided with weaker resale transaction volumes, effectively capped the year’s performance and signaled the end of the preceding rally. Reduced activity exerted downward pressure on price growth and prevented any late-year surge. In comparison, private home prices still managed to rise 3.4% for the full year 2025, reflecting a more measured but positive performance in the private market.
On a full-year basis, HDB resale prices rose 2.9% in 2025, a modest expansion that stood at less than one-third of 2024’s 9.7% increase. This underscores how decisively the market’s earlier momentum had cooled. As a result, 2025 marked the slowest price growth year for HDB resales in recent history, with annual gains falling below even the subdued increase recorded in 2019.
Analysts observing the flash data have noted that the flat Q4 outcome muted what had been a more energetic trajectory in earlier quarters. This converts what might have been another strong year into a more tempered result, with the final figures validating a narrative of consolidation rather than continued acceleration.
The yearly comparison, set against 2024’s robust gains, highlighted a clear cooling trend in the public resale segment even as private home sales remained comparatively brisk.
Resale volume patterns were central to this shift, as Q4 2025 registered weaker transaction numbers that correlated directly with the observed price stability. This suggests a demand-side moderation that limited upward price revisions despite ongoing interest in alternative housing segments.
While private sector briskness supported prices outside the HDB space, this momentum did not spill over meaningfully into HDB resales, leaving overall activity in the public resale market subdued. Meanwhile, properties with green certifications continued to command rental premiums of 3-5% in the commercial sector, illustrating how sustainability features can support valuations across different property segments.
Against this backdrop, average prices for key flat types, such as S$781,317 for 5-room units based on Dollars and Sense analysis, provided an empirical reference point for evaluating valuation levels and setting 2026 projections.
These benchmarks, alongside expectations that 4-room and 5-room resale prices could rise by S$16,000 to S$55,000, positioned the flat Q4 2025 outcome as a potential stabilisation phase.
This has shaped moderated, data-driven outlooks for the forthcoming year.
