Although public housing values have broadly trended upward since 2020, Singapore’s HDB resale market entered a clear inflection point in Q4 2025, as the Resale Price Index (RPI) effectively plateaued at 203.6, unchanged from 203.7 in the previous quarter, marking the first quarter without price growth since Q1 2020 and bringing to a close a 19‑quarter stretch of uninterrupted increases that had extended through end‑2024.
HDB resale prices plateaued in Q4 2025, ending a 19‑quarter post‑pandemic growth streak
This stall followed four consecutive quarters of decelerating gains, contrasting sharply with Q4 2024, when the index still advanced 2.6% and extended the post‑pandemic rally that had been projected, under earlier assumptions, to run for up to 23 quarters at an annual pace of 4–6%. In line with this moderation, analysts now forecast a 2–4% rise in resale prices for 2026, signalling expectations of a soft landing rather than a sharp correction. As prices level off, buyers are gaining greater negotiation room with sellers, reflecting a shift away from the frenzied bidding seen in earlier years.
On a full‑year basis, resale flat prices rose 2.9% in 2025, a marked slowdown from the 9.7% increase in 2024 and below both the 4.9% recorded in 2023 and the 10‑year average growth of 5.1% from 2016 to 2025.
The last three quarters of 2025 each registered sub‑1% quarterly gains, reflecting a broad moderation after cumulative price appreciation of 50.5% since Q1 2020, or an average of 2.7% per quarter.
This remained far below the 294.4% surge over 20 quarters observed in the 1990s, when quarterly growth averaged 14.7%.
Transaction volumes signalled softening demand conditions alongside price stabilization.
Q4 2025 resale volume fell to 5,129 units, down 27.2% year‑on‑year and 18.8% lower on a comparable basis, marking the second consecutive quarter of double‑digit declines.
For the full year, resale transactions totaled about 26,000 units, between 26,042 and 26,169 depending on the compilation, representing a 9.7–9.8% drop from 2024 and the steepest annual contraction since the 4.2% decline in 2023.
Market observers pointed to a combination of buyer resistance, reduced urgency after the 2023–2024 bidding‑war environment, and shifting expectations as signals of a stabilization phase. Properties typically sold below asking price, averaging 58 days to contract, as market dynamics shifted in favour of purchasers.
Efforts to cut Build‑To‑Order (BTO) waiting times, together with plans to supply 19,600 BTO flats in 2026 and over 55,000 units from 2025 to 2027, were seen as gradually diverting some demand away from the resale segment.
Even as a smaller pool of 6,974 flats reaching Minimum Occupation Period in 2025, the lowest in 11 years, constrained immediate resale supply.
Looking ahead to 2026, analysts projected HDB resale price growth in the 2–4% range, with transaction volumes stabilising around 26,000–27,000 units.
A key structural factor is the anticipated release of 13,840 flats reaching MOP in 2026, which is expected to expand the stock of relatively new units entering the secondary market and to increase the availability of premium flats in mature estates.
This may occur even as reduced BTO supply in 2026–2027 could re‑channel a segment of demand back to resale.
