Although Singapore’s public housing market remained broadly stable in 2025, HDB resale prices recorded only a 2.9% full‑year increase, marking the slowest annual growth since 2019 and underscoring a clear deceleration in price momentum. This outcome reflected an alignment between the first nine months and the eventual full‑year result, as cumulative price gains had already reached 2.9% by the end of the third quarter, indicating that the final quarter contributed no additional uplift to resale values. This moderation in public housing was mirrored by the private residential sector, where overall prices rose by 3.4% in 2025 amid moderate price growth projected to continue into 2026.
HDB resale prices in 2025 rose just 2.9%, the slowest annual gain since 2019
The fourth quarter of 2025 was particularly notable, with HDB resale prices remaining flat, registering 0% quarter‑on‑quarter change and delivering the first unchanged quarter since Q1 2020. Industry observers attributed this stagnation primarily to weaker resale transaction volume, as reduced deal flow limited upward price discovery and constrained sellers’ ability to secure higher valuations despite generally firm underlying housing demand.
In contrast, the private residential segment posted a 3.4% price increase for 2025, also its slowest annual gain since 2020, yet still outpacing the HDB resale market. Private home prices were supported by comparatively brisk sales activity in Q4, which helped sustain modest positive price momentum even as broader market conditions normalised. This illustrates a divergence in performance between the public and private segments. The broader private market was further underpinned by a rebound in buyer interest in the second half of 2025, aided by lower interest rates and pent‑up demand. Market caution towards large-scale developments was evident when Tan Boon Liat Building’s S$1.15 billion en bloc sale attracted zero bids in March 2025, reflecting investor wariness amid challenging conditions.
The comparative underperformance of HDB resale prices in 2025, relative both to prior years and to the private residential market, was thus closely linked to volume dynamics rather than any sharp shift in fundamentals. With the first nine months already capturing the entire 2.9% annual appreciation and Q4 delivering a flat outcome, the data suggested that transactional intensity, rather than aggressive bidding, had been the key constraint on further price gains.
From a historical perspective, the 2.9% HDB resale increase in 2025, alongside the 3.4% private residential rise, positioned both segments at multi-year lows in terms of growth rates. This reinforces the narrative of a broader market consolidation phase.
Analysts noted that the flat HDB performance in Q4, combined with subdued full-year growth, sets a cautious baseline for 2026. The trajectory of resale volume is expected to be a critical determinant of whether the current moderation persists or stabilises at a new, lower growth band.
