Although overall transaction activity remains uneven across product types, 2025 has delivered a marked rebound in high-end condominium liquidity, led by San Francisco and reinforced by record-setting Bay Area deal flow, even as broader sales volumes trend lower. In San Francisco, luxury condo/co-op sales above $2.5 million surged in April 2025 to the highest monthly count since May 2022, and October 2025 posted 71 sales above $3 million, also the strongest month since May 2022. Pricing strengthened alongside turnover, with the median condo sale price up 9.13% year-over-year in April, while the citywide median condo price rose 2.9% over the 12 months ending August 2025, indicating appreciation despite mixed absorption. This momentum also tracks with demand for smaller luxury homes that deliver high-end living with reduced upkeep and greater flexibility.
The rebound has occurred within tighter, product-specific inventory conditions and slower execution timelines for attached housing. In April 2025, San Francisco condo sales volume fell 21.17% year-over-year even as prices advanced, and overall sales volume declined 6% year-over-year despite a slight month-to-month increase. Market mechanics remain bifurcated: the condo absorption rate ran at 20%, materially below the 36% recorded for houses, condos averaged roughly 50 days on market—about double that of houses—and only 35% of condo transactions closed over asking, with an average premium near 0.5% above list, compared with single-family homes selling about 14.2% above asking. Listings also contracted, with single-family inventory down 6.29% and condo listings down 7.52% year-over-year in April, even as broader measures indicated inventory levels running 30–35% above the prior year yet still historically depleted. In San Francisco, inventory rose 9% year-over-year, a modest increase that contrasted with far larger jumps elsewhere in the Bay Area.
Regionally, Bay Area luxury deal flow provided additional support. By December 2025, one county recorded 423 sales above $5 million, surpassing the prior high of 340 in 2021, and Hillsborough logged 84 such transactions, approaching its record.
San Francisco’s sales count reached 488 by late 2025, the highest since 2022, while the median house price rose to $1.502 million, up 7.7% annually, and District 5 luxury properties increased more than 30% in 2025. Nationally, luxury participation remained lower, with a 14.06% sales ratio in January 2025 versus 37% in 2023, yet pricing stayed firm, with median luxury benchmarks near $912,500 and sales near 98.78% of list, as stable 6% mortgage rates by late 2025 coincided with incremental confidence and new inventory-driven rebounds versus 2023.
