Although transaction activity eased in late 2025 amid a seasonal year-end slowdown, expanded Build-To-Order and Sale of Balance Flats launches, and mounting price resistance, Singapore’s HDB resale market is positioned for a firmer, more sustainable footing in 2026 as supply conditions normalise and price momentum stabilises. A larger resale supply pipeline is expected to anchor a more balanced market in 2026.
Late-2025 resale activity softened, but 2026 looks steadier as supply normalises and price momentum stabilises.
Resale volumes in the first 11 months of 2025 totalled 23,924 transactions, 10.2% lower year on year, while Q4 2025 was expected to be the weakest quarter since Q2 2020, at about 3,426 deals, reflecting both diverted demand and tighter affordability thresholds. PropNex also expects roughly 26,000 to 27,000 HDB resale transactions to be recorded in 2026 as more flats reach their MOP.
Price indicators also pointed to deceleration, with resale prices flat in Q4 2025 after four consecutive quarters of weaker growth, and quarterly gains slowing to the lowest pace in five years by end-2025.
For 2026, forecasts cluster around a 3% to 4% rise, with a broader expectation range of 1% to 5% as moderating forces persist, including expanded primary-market supply and stricter Plus and Prime flat rules that temper speculative behaviour. This “soft landing” dynamic, underpinned by policy stability, is viewed as supportive of affordability, and reduces the probability of further cooling measures.
A material swing factor is supply, as an estimated 13,484 to 13,500 flats are projected to reach their Minimum Occupation Period in 2026, up roughly 69% from about 8,000 in 2025, before rising further to 18,939 in 2027.
Larger cohorts are expected from Punggol, Queenstown, and Toa Payoh, with mature estates accounting for a significant share, broadening buyer choice and reducing urgency, even as household formation remains steady and right-sizing policies continue to support senior mobility. Four-room flats dominate the 2026 MOP cohort with 5,909 units entering the resale pool, followed by five-room units at 2,711, creating a diversified inventory that spans varying household sizes and affordability brackets.
Despite the moderation narrative, the high-end resale segment stayed active, with 1,594 million-dollar flats transacted in 2025, surpassing the prior record of 1,035 in 2024, and with 351 deals occurring in Q4 alone.
Transactions were led by Toa Payoh (302), Bukit Merah (216), and Queenstown (173), although 8.7% of such sales, or 139 units, took place in non-mature towns, signalling that prime attributes such as long remaining leases, location, and connectivity can still clear at elevated price points.
