Although the real estate profession is projected to expand modestly through 2034, with employment growing 3% and roughly 46,300 annual openings largely driven by retirements and career changes rather than organic demand, the anticipated increase in active agents by 2026 does not, in itself, signal a broad-based market recovery.
More agents don’t equal a housing rebound; growth is driven by turnover, not surging demand
Survey data indicating that 65% of agents report a positive career outlook for 2026 and 86% expect to remain in business reflects professional resilience and optimism. Yet it coexists with structurally constrained demand and only modest expectations for transaction growth.
Forecasts for sales volumes remain tempered. The National Association of Realtors projects a 14% increase in home sales for 2026 and a slight 1% rise in both new-home sales and single-family homebuilding. With active listings projected to grow another 5–10% in 2026 alongside moderating prices, the environment will reward agents who can translate this incremental inventory into strategic opportunities for clients rather than relying on market momentum alone. Even with these gains, middle-income buyers will still be able to afford only about 21% of available homes, far below pre-pandemic norms and highlighting a persistent affordability gap.
A substantial share of practitioners, approximately one third, anticipate transactions will grow by just 0–5%. Recent activity has been anchored near a 4 million annual home-sale floor, and this limited expansion in deal flow — relative to the surge in licensees — intensifies competition for a finite pool of qualified buyers and sellers.
Affordability metrics underscore the disconnect between agent counts and end-user demand. First-time buyers have fallen to 21% of transactions, an all-time low.
Middle-income households can now afford only 21% of listed properties, compared with roughly 50% before the pandemic and a historical norm near 40%.
A 6% average mortgage rate in 2026, down from 6.7%, technically qualifies an additional 5.5 million households.
Yet only about 10% of newly qualified households typically purchase in a given year, translating into roughly 500,000 incremental sales, which is insufficient to fully resolve access constraints. Markets with transparent regulatory frameworks and proactive governance have demonstrated more resilience in managing affordability pressures and ensuring sustainable growth trajectories.
Inventory conditions remain tight despite improvement. Active listings are up 20% year over year and projected to grow another 5–10% in 2026.
However, supply still trails pre-COVID levels, leaving a modest national shortage and pronounced regional asymmetries. The South and West are approaching balance, while the Northeast and Midwest lag.
Meanwhile, the lock-in effect is easing only gradually, as equity-rich owners—supported by low delinquencies under 4% and tight lending standards—continue to see 2–4% annual price gains.
This reinforces wealth for existing participants while sustaining barriers for new entrants.
In this context, more agents largely signify intensified competition, rising dependence on efficiency tools, and a redistribution of limited transaction volume — not a fully restored housing market.
