As Singapore’s property market undergoes a considerable divergence between its residential segments, HDB resale prices have decelerated to their slowest quarterly growth in nearly five years. They have risen merely 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, with the price index standing at 203.7. Meanwhile, the private property sector has accelerated with 0.9% quarterly growth, buoyed by declining mortgage rates and a substantial new supply pipeline of 4,191 units released by developers.
Despite this deceleration, the HDB resale market has maintained its 23rd consecutive quarter of price growth since 2020, with year-on-year appreciation remaining positive at 7.3% as of mid-2025. This demonstrates underlying resilience despite four consecutive quarters of price moderation beginning in Q3 2024.
HDB resale prices maintain 23 consecutive quarters of growth since 2020, with 7.3% year-on-year appreciation demonstrating underlying market resilience.
Transaction volumes in the HDB resale segment recorded between 7,157 to 7,221 units in Q3 2025. This represents a 1.7–2.5% quarter-on-quarter increase but a notable decline of 11.3–17.5% compared to Q3 2024. Notably, Q3 2025 deviated from seasonal patterns by failing to record peak resale activity typically observed during this period. The surge in private home transactions to 7,404 units reflects stronger buyer confidence in the broader residential market. Resale volume declined significantly on a year-on-year basis, with 11.3% YoY decrease attributed to large supply diversion from new flat launches.
The market composition revealed that 50% of resale transactions occurred between $500,000 and $750,000, while 22% fell within the $250,000 to $500,000 range. Non-mature estates accounted for 58.5% of all transactions. Four-room flats dominated transaction volumes at 43.1%, followed by three-room and five-room configurations at 26.2% and 24% respectively.
The performance differential between segments is expected to intensify as anticipated SORA declines threaten to reduce private mortgage rates below HDB’s concessionary loan rate of 2.6%. This could fundamentally alter buyer preferences. Real estate investment volumes in Singapore’s broader property sector increased by 28% year-on-year to S$28.62 billion in 2024, highlighting the market’s overall sustainable growth trajectory.
Softer interest rates are expected to moderate HDB resale demand, particularly for higher-priced units. Improved private sector affordability is driving increasing buyer comparisons between larger HDB resale flats and private condos within similar price ranges.
The million-dollar HDB flat segment recorded 472 transactions in Q3 2025. Full-year projections range from 1,500–1,600 units, supported by limited new Minimum Occupation Period completions which constrain supply.
The government’s responsive policy framework includes a February 2026 Build-to-Order exercise offering approximately 4,600 units. Additionally, 3,000 Sale of Balance Flats are planned. These measures address supply constraints, while prospective buyers are advised to advance HDB Flat Eligibility applications.
