Despite the ongoing streak of positive growth in the public housing market, HDB resale prices exhibited a remarkable moderation in the first quarter of 2025, rising by a modest 1.5% quarter-on-quarter according to HDB flash estimates, marking the slowest quarterly growth in five quarters. This increase represents a significant deceleration from the 2.6% growth recorded in Q4 2024, continuing the market’s consecutive positive trajectory that has now extended to 20 quarters since Q2 2020, or 23 quarters including the flat growth observed in Q1 2020.
The moderation in price appreciation coincides with the substantial expansion of housing supply through Build-to-Order (BTO) flats and the February 2025 Sale of Balance Flats exercise, which was reportedly the largest of its kind to date.
Transaction volumes have concurrently contracted, with 6,392 flats resold as of March 27, 2025, reflecting a 7.7% decline compared to the corresponding period in 2024, partially attributable to fewer flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period in recent years. This supply constraint is expected to ease gradually as the number of flats reaching MOP is projected to increase from 8,000 in 2025 to 19,500 by 2028. This decline in transaction volume could be further influenced by the shorter waiting times for newly launched BTO flats, which may have diverted potential buyers from the resale market. Prospective buyers must also navigate the Ethnic Integration Policy when purchasing resale flats, which ensures a balanced ethnic composition in HDB estates.
Notwithstanding the overall market cooldown, premium segment transactions have surged to unprecedented levels, with a record 348 flats commanding prices of at least $1 million in Q1 2025, representing a 22% increase from the 285 such transactions recorded in Q4 2024.
Particularly remarkable were sales in Cantonment Road and Toa Payoh, where transactions approached $1.5 million, underscoring sustained demand for centrally located properties with distinctive attributes.
The market dynamics are shaped by multiple countervailing forces, including pent-up demand from first-time buyers, reduced BTO sales exercises, and private property owners completing their 15-month waiting period.
Mature towns and central regions continue to command premium prices due to superior connectivity and amenities, while larger flat configurations attract heightened interest from family-oriented purchasers.
With tighter supply conditions persisting despite government cooling measures, the resale market remains competitive even as the growth rate moderates from the accelerated pace observed throughout 2024.
