While maintaining its upward trajectory for the 20th consecutive quarter since Q2 2020, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale price index recorded a more measured increase of 1.6% in Q1 2025, reaching 201.0 points. This marks the slowest quarterly growth in five quarters, markedly below the 2.6% rise observed in Q4 2024 and the average quarterly growth of 2.3% throughout 2024, signaling a potential moderation in market dynamics as cumulative gains since Q2 2020 now exceed 52%.
Transaction volume data reveals contrasting patterns, with resale transactions increasing 2.6% quarter-on-quarter to 6,590 units, up from 6,424 units in Q4 2024, while simultaneously showing a 6.8% year-on-year decrease from Q1 2024’s 7,068 units. This resilience in transaction volume, despite moderating price growth, indicates stable underlying demand amidst changing market conditions and sustained buyer interest in the resale sector.
Despite price growth moderation, the 2.6% QoQ increase in resale transactions signals robust underlying demand in Singapore’s HDB market.
The property segment analysis shows five-room flats leading with 2.1% price growth in Q1 2025, down from 2.7% in the previous quarter, reflecting broader deceleration across flat categories.
Geographic distribution of price movements reveals increasing market fragmentation, with 19 towns registering price growth, down from 20 in the previous quarter, while towns experiencing declining prices increased from 6 to 7. The significant reduction in flat supply predicted for 2025, with only 6,974 units reaching MOP, is likely to constrain future market activity.
Market observers attribute this moderation to increasing price resistance among buyers after years of substantial appreciation, coupled with expanded supply options from BTO and SBF flat releases. Despite this moderation, HDB resale prices have impressively increased 53.7% since Q2 2019. The heightened supply is creating alternative pathways for home ownership, thereby reducing competitive pressure within the resale market and contributing to the more sustainable growth trajectory. The million-dollar flat segment continues to show strength with 348 million-dollar transactions recorded in Q1 2025, representing 5.5% of total resale volume.
Macroeconomic factors, including global trade tensions and local policy initiatives aimed at balancing affordability with market stability, further influence current market sentiment.
The sustained but moderating uptrend reflects the market’s fundamental resilience while adapting to evolving supply-demand dynamics, suggesting a potential recalibration of expectations for HDB resale performance throughout 2025.
