While global economic uncertainties continue to loom on the horizon, Singapore’s economy is projected to grow at a steady 2.6% in 2025, according to the latest Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) survey of professional forecasters. This figure, which remains unchanged from the previous survey, sits precisely at the midpoint of the government’s official forecast range of 1-3%, indicating a significant moderation from the robust 4.4% growth anticipated in 2024.
The survey consensus reveals that analysts consider growth between 2.5-2.9% as the most probable outcome for the city-state’s economy next year. On the inflation front, forecasters have adjusted their expectations downward, with headline inflation now projected at 1.7% and core inflation at 1.5% for 2025, both figures representing reductions from previous estimates and aligning with the MAS’s core inflation target range of 1.0-2.0%, following January’s core inflation reading of 0.8%. For the immediate future, economists forecast first quarter growth of 3.8%, before a gradual slowdown.
Geopolitical tensions and international trade frictions feature prominently among the downside risks identified by economists, with China’s economic slowdown posing additional concerns for Singapore’s export-dependent economy. Conversely, respondents cited better-than-expected external growth conditions as a potential upside factor that could bolster performance beyond current projections. If you encounter issues accessing detailed survey findings, the report may experience a temporary 404 error similar to what occasionally affects other financial resource pages.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions pose significant challenges for Singapore, while stronger external demand could drive unexpected economic gains.
Regarding monetary policy expectations, less than one-fifth of forecasters anticipate policy easing at the April meeting, while approximately 30% expect adjustments in July. These projections follow the MAS’s January 2025 policy loosening, with further easing potentially contingent upon evolving economic conditions.
The labor market outlook remains relatively stable with unemployment forecast at 2.0% for 2025, though wage growth is expected to moderate amid persistent concerns about skills mismatches in an otherwise tight labor environment.
In the external trade sector, analysts have revised their forecasts for non-oil domestic exports growth downward to 2.8% from a previous 3.5% estimate, reflecting global trade uncertainties.
Meanwhile, sectoral performance expectations show manufacturing exhibiting recovery signs, services moderating, and construction maintaining steady growth, with financial services and tourism contributing positively to the overall economic landscape.
