As the Singapore real estate market prepares for 2025, housing analysts are closely monitoring the significant decrease in Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) flats set to enter the market, with only 6,974 units becoming available—marking an 11-year low in supply. This constrained inventory represents a substantial reduction in newly eligible resale properties, creating favorable conditions for sellers while intensifying competition among prospective buyers seeking these highly coveted assets.
Market specialists anticipate that mature estates featuring these newly MOP flats will likely command premium valuations due to their established infrastructure and connectivity advantages. The most recent data shows that the HDB Resale Price Index has reached 200.9 in 1Q 2025, reflecting the continuing upward momentum in the market.
Newly MOP flats in mature estates will attract premium pricing, leveraging their superior infrastructure networks and established connectivity benefits.
The restricted supply of MOP flats is projected to influence broader resale price trajectories, with forecasts indicating growth between 3.5% and 8% throughout 2025, a moderation from the 9.7% increase observed in 2024. This price deceleration can be attributed to several counterbalancing factors, including increased Build-to-Order (BTO) flat availability and anticipated reductions in mortgage interest rates, which may redirect some buyer interest toward private residential properties.
Transaction preferences continue to favor larger configurations, particularly Executive and 5-room units, which address the evolving needs of multi-generational households. Demand patterns remain geographically differentiated, with centrally located resale flats commanding substantial premiums despite their age profiles. Despite market fluctuations, HDB resale prices have demonstrated remarkable resilience with 19 consecutive quarterly increases through 2024.
The anticipated decline in borrowing costs through 2025 may enhance affordability metrics, potentially sustaining transaction volumes estimated between 26,000 and 27,000 units annually. Buyers must also secure an HDB Loan Eligibility letter or bank Approval in Principle before committing to any purchase.
The competitive landscape for housing acquisition presents nuanced considerations, as shorter waiting periods for new BTO developments begin to divert some demand from the resale segment. Additionally, the prospective reduction in private property loan rates below HDB financing thresholds may recalibrate buyer calculations regarding long-term investment returns.
Nevertheless, resale flats maintain their fundamental appeal through immediate availability and established neighborhood ecosystems, particularly significant for buyers prioritizing rapid occupancy timelines or specific location requirements.
