Several key indicators point to a cooling Singapore public housing market as HDB resale prices inched up by just 0.9% in Q2 2025, marking the third consecutive quarter of decelerating growth and the lowest quarter-on-quarter increase since Q2 2020. The recent figures represent a significant moderation from the 1.6% increase observed in Q1 2025 and the more substantial 2.6% growth recorded in Q4 2024, suggesting that price momentum is waning despite the market’s prolonged uptrend.
Transaction volumes further corroborate this cooling trend, with Q2 2025 recording 6,981 resale transactions up to June 29, reflecting a 5% year-on-year decline compared to the 7,347 units transacted in Q2 2024. This downturn follows a more pronounced 21.1% quarter-on-quarter reduction in transaction volume during Q4 2024, reinforcing the narrative of a market gradually losing steam after an extended period of robust activity. Households are being cautioned to practice financial prudence when purchasing properties amid the uncertain economic conditions.
Transaction volumes tell the story—fewer deals, steeper declines, and a market clearly running out of momentum after years of frenzied activity.
The modest price increase has been attributed to a combination of stable economic fundamentals and declining interest rates, coupled with increased market supply as more Build-To-Order flats enter the market in 2025. The historic low of 6,974 MOP flats entering the market in 2025 has created more favorable conditions for sellers despite the overall cooling trend. The upcoming launch of approximately 19,600 BTO flats in 2025 is expected to further ease demand pressures on the resale market. Government cooling measures, including the reduction in loan-to-value limits for HDB loans implemented in August 2024, have begun to exert their intended moderating influence on market dynamics.
Despite the broader moderation, premium segments continue to demonstrate resilience, with 415 resale flats commanding prices of at least $1 million in Q2 2025, marking a 19% increase from the previous quarter. These high-value transactions underscore the market’s persistent stratification even as overall growth decelerates.
The current price growth streak has now extended to 19 consecutive quarters, a prolonged period second only to the 20-quarter streak observed between Q4 1991 and Q4 1996. Looking ahead, analysts anticipate continued moderation throughout 2025, as economic headwinds, global trade conflicts, and signs of cooling labor demand combine with increased housing supply to temper significant price acceleration in Singapore’s public housing sector.
