As Singapore’s Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale market enters a phase of measured deceleration, characterized by first-quarter 2025 price growth slowing to 1.6% and cumulative nine-month appreciation declining to 2.9% from 2024’s 6.9%, an increasing segment of property owners faces strategic decisions regarding portfolio repositioning.
The quarterly growth rate in Q3 2025 reached 0.4%, marking the lowest expansion in over five years, while resale transaction volume contracted 7.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with 20,849 flats transacted during the first nine months. Market sentiment has fundamentally shifted from speculative acquisition patterns toward deliberate price discovery and holistic value assessment. This market moderation reflects buyer resistance to rising prices as new flat launches ease supply pressures and contribute to a more balanced environment.
Q3 2025’s 0.4% quarterly growth marked the lowest expansion in five years, reflecting market sentiment’s fundamental shift toward deliberate price discovery over speculative acquisition.
Concurrently, the HDB rental market experiences robust expansion driven by displaced buyers, foreign workers, students, and households awaiting Build-to-Order completion. Limited inventory of newer flats and interim housing requirements from families between residential shifts have sustained elevated demand for rental properties, particularly among owners of flats that have satisfied the five-year Minimum Occupation Period, generating moderate rental price appreciation. Approved rental applications have increased 4.2% quarter-on-quarter to 10,066, underscoring strong rental market momentum.
Landlords benefit substantially from constrained supply, with rental demand expected to persist through 2028 given the controlled release of new flats entering the resale market.
The resale condominium sector simultaneously attracts heightened buyer interest as forecasted mortgage rate declines enhance private property affordability relative to HDB financing options. Certain buyers increasingly pivot toward resale condos when pricing alignment with large HDB units occurs, recognizing greater flexibility, amenities provision, and investment diversification potential. Falling interest rates create increasingly favorable conditions for buyers considering the transition from public to private housing.
New launch activity continues stimulating private home transactions, thereby altering overall buyer composition across housing segments.
First-time homeowners and public housing upgraders remain primary demand drivers within the resale HDB market, while downsize migration from private property owners exerts additional pressure on available inventory. Strong preference persists for large HDB units, particularly Executive configurations, addressing multi-generational accommodation needs and benefiting from constrained supply.
The HDB Resale Price Index ascended to 202.9 in Q2 2025, representing 0.9% quarter-on-quarter growth, with industry forecasts projecting 3% to 6% annual appreciation for 2025.
Full-year transaction projections range between 26,000 and 27,000 units, reflecting market stabilization and improved accessibility conditions for both buyers and upgraders navigating Singapore’s property landscape.
